The bitcoin market is experiencing the lowest volatility it’s seen for 18 months.
Daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the price high and low, fell below $100 on Oct. 19 and has remained under that psychological mark to date, according to data from CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI). That’s the longest volatility has been so low since April 2017.
It is worth noting that BTC averaged around $1,200 in April and early May of 2017. Further, the average daily volatility during that period was $33, that is, prices moved 2.75 percent on a daily basis. Hence, back then, a $100 daily volatility reading was a normal thing.
As of now, BTC is averaging around $6,500 and the average daily volatility has dropped to $56 in the last seven days, meaning prices are moving just 0.86 percent on a daily basis. So, it seems safe to say that we are witnessing an unprecedented period of low volatility.
Such calm periods often end in a big move on either side. However, bitcoin price volatility has been falling over months now and a promised sustained shift to either bulls or bears has so far not materialized.
Under these conditions, the best thing to do is to jot down the key levels and trade the breakout.
Bull breakout scenario: Move above $7,400
A break above the September high of $7,400 would put an end to the series of lower price highs (marked by circles). The bull breakout, if confirmed, would open the doors to a stronger rally to $10,000. On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at the July highs near $8,500.
Bear breakout scenario: BTC finds acceptance below $6,000
As seen in the weekly chart above, BTC seems to have carved out a bottom around $6,000. The likes of billionaire investor Novogratz have also echoed similar sentiments recently. As a result, $6,000 is the level to beat for the bears.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
Bitcoin image via Shutterstock; charts by Trading View